OPEC maintains 2025 oil demand growth at 1.3 mb/d, projects sustained momentum for 2026 

This is according to its newly-released Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for May 2025.

“The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 is expected to remain at 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. Minor adjustments were made in 1Q25, mainly due to actual data,” the 12-member organisation noted.

Within the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) region, OPEC projects that the oil demand growth will be led by the Americas, underpinned by rising road mobility and industrial activities.

The organisation further noted that Asia Pacific is also anticipated to register an uptick in demand in contrast to OECD Europe, which is projected to experience a minor contraction in oil consumption, with demand expected to decline by about 13,000 barrels per day (tb/d) year-on-year.

OPEC reported that in the non-OECD region, oil demand will grow by 1.2 mb/d, with Other Asia emerging as the key driver, followed by China, India, the Middle East, and Latin America.

The report projects total world oil demand to average 105 mb/d in 2025, driven by strong air travel demand, resilient road transport usage—including commercial trucking—and continued growth in industrial, construction, and agricultural sectors in non-OECD economies.

Furthermore, new capacity additions and favorable petrochemical margins, particularly in China and the Middle East, are expected to support the upward trajectory in oil demand across emerging markets, OPEC stated.

OPEC’s outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, with global oil demand growth forecasted to sustain at 1.3 mb/d y-o-y.

In terms of product categories, transportation fuels—namely gasoline, jet fuel/kerosene, and diesel—are set to be the main contributors to demand growth in 2026.

The organisation noted that additional support will come from liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and naphtha, particularly in the petrochemical sectors.

However, demand for residual fuel oil is expected to soften year-on-year in 2026, signaling a shift away from less efficient fuel sources.