The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) on Sunday agreed a small oil output increase for December. But there will be no hike in the first quarter of next year.
The eight OPEC+ members taking part in the group’s monthly meeting – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria – agreed to increase December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, the same as for October and November.
“Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026,” the group said in a statement.
The development followed its moderating plans to regain market share due to rising fears of a supply glut.
OPEC+ has raised output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day or around 2.7 per cent of global supply since April, but slowed the pace from October amid predictions of a looming oversupply.
The group had been reducing output for several years until April, and cuts had peaked in March, amounting to 5.85 million barrels per day in total.
The reductions comprised three elements: voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, 1.65 million barrels per day by eight members, and a further 2 million barrels per day by the whole group.
The group has been unwinding voluntary cuts, while the last element of the cuts for the whole group is meant to stay in place until the end of 2026.
Eight OPEC+ members will meet again on November 30, the same day as a full OPEC+ meeting.
Meanwhile, the latest sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia are adding to challenges as the Vladimir Putin-led country may struggle to further raise output after the US and Britain imposed new measures on top producers Rosneft and Lukoil.
Morgan Stanley raised its price forecast for Brent crude for 2026 to $60 per barrel from $57.50 following OPEC+’s decision to pause production hikes over the first three months of next year.
“Even if the OPEC announcement does not change the mechanics of our production outlook, it does send an important signal,” the bank’s analysts said in a note, adding that, “With OPEC involvement, volatility is reduced.”