Oil traders widely expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to approve another significant oil production increase this weekend, likely completing the revival of its previously suspended output.
A poll conducted by Bloomberg predicts that Saudi Arabia and its partners will approve a further hike of 548,000 barrels per day for September at a video conference on August 3.
OPEC+ delegates have said a provisional plan for this is already in place, Bloomberg stated.
If the boost is ratified, eight key nations from OPEC and its partners will have fully reversed a 2.2-million-barrel supply cutback — made in 2023 — a year ahead of schedule.
The cartel’s surprise pivot over the past few months to swiftly restore halted output despite an impending global surplus has put downward pressure on crude prices, offering relief for consumers and a win for President Donald Trump as he calls for cheaper fuel.
Brent crude futures traded near $69 a barrel on Monday, down 7% this year, as the group’s extra barrels add to the headwinds from slowing Chinese demand, booming American supply, and the economic threat posed by Trump’s trade tariffs.
At the start of the year, analysts widely expected the alliance, which had repeatedly delayed reviving supplies, wouldn’t be able to add any barrels for the entirety of 2025.
The organization has been able to defy its critics partly because its supply increases, at least in its initial stages, were smaller than the advertised amounts. Strong summer demand, a tight diesel market, and the latest US trade deals have also helped support prices this month.
OPEC’s data indicate that it added barely a third of the agreed volume in May, as the Saudis pushed members like Kazakhstan and Iraq to make amends for earlier overproduction and forego their share of the increases.
In June, however, Gulf members, led by the Saudis, surged production in an apparent effort to position supplies outside the Middle East during the Israel-Iran conflict.
Once OPEC+ has finished adding 2.5 million barrels per day — which includes an extra 300,000 barrels accorded to the United Arab Emirates — it may then consider another layer of cuts. This amounts to 1.66 million barrels and is currently scheduled to remain in place until the end of next year. Delegates have said the group is considering pausing before moving on to this new tier.
A panel of key OPEC+ members, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, is also due to review global oil market conditions at a video conference on Monday, though the group’s secretariat has stressed the JMMC’s assessment won’t have any bearing on the August 3 decision.
The planned production increase by OPEC+ could weigh on global oil prices, especially if demand growth underperforms or if inventories remain stable.
Nigeria has recently sought to increase its OPEC+ production quota, aiming to boost its allocation by 25% to reach 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027.
Nigeria currently operates under an OPEC+ production quota of 1.5 million bpd, but has failed to meet the target on several occasions.