Rebased GDP data: 2019 was chosen as base year for its ‘relative economic stability’ – NBS

This decision, according to the NBS, was driven by the year’s status as a period of “relative economic stability” compared to other recent years, which were marked by significant economic shocks.

This was disclosed on Thursday during a sensitisation workshop on GDP and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing, organized by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group and the NBS in Lagos.

During his presentation, Moses Waniko, the Technical Assistant to the Statistician General also said “Some major surveys that served as inputs into the rebasing covered this period. 2020, 2021 and 2022 were avoided as base years due to economic instabilities – this follows IMF guidelines.” 

The agency noted further that 2019 was chosen because “other sector-specific administrative data for this period were collected.” 

He noted further that the newly rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures will be unveiled by the end of January.

In October 2024, the NBS revealed its plans to rebase both the GDP and CPI to reflect current economic realities and account for structural changes in the economy.

Waniko emphasized that the data collection process is nearing completion. However, the results will still need to undergo validation before the official launch at the end of the month.

Waniko stated, “We’re currently concluding the rebasing. We need to validate the results, and then we have to do a launch; we are looking at the end of January to do that launch, to disseminate the numbers, and then, usually, there are post-rebasing activities that will happen.” 

Waniko noted several key benefits the rebased GDP would have on the national economy. He emphasized that the GDP rebasing should be viewed not only in terms of aggregate numbers but also in terms of their distribution, weights, and contributions across different sectors.

He added, “It is good to look at the rebasing from different angles, not just the aggregate numbers, but to look at what those numbers are supposed to tell us, in terms of the distribution, the aggregate numbers, in terms of their weights, contributions and the rest. 

“Beyond that, there are other implications for the national economy, which we have tried to put in this slide. The first is rebasing will provide or allow for an Economic and Development Plan. 

“The second is that the rebasing will really help to provide a good trajectory for the economy. So beyond this, it’s important to also state that after the rebasing, there are certain things that we expect that might change, such as changes in the size of the structure of the economy. 

“We expect that the size of the economy will be bigger.” 

Waniko noted further, “The tax-to-GDP ratio is something that people may want to see what the numbers would look like. Debt to GDP ratio of 18.5 percent as of September 2019 could also reduce with the bigger size of the GDP, and then per-capita income will increase after the rebasing.” 

Nigeria’s current GDP is based on figures from 2010, and this new rebase will align the country’s economic indicators with more current data.

Nigeria’s current GDP is based on figures from 2010, and this new rebase will align the country’s economic indicators with more current data.