Report: Over 2.2 million people displaced, food inflation soars as farmer-herder crisis escalates in Nigeria

This is according to a new report by SBM Intelligence.

The report, titled ‘‘A Threat to National Stability: How the Escalating Conflict Between Herders and Farming Communities in Nigeria’s Middle Belt Has Spread South While Maintaining Its Grip on the Country’s Food Basket (2019-2025)’‘, highlights the devastating toll of the conflict over the past six years.

According to the report, “Entire communities have been displaced, with over 2.2 million people forced from their homes nationwide and more than 300,000 crowded into makeshift camps in Benue State alone. Nigeria’s agricultural output has suffered dramatically, particularly in the Middle Belt, which produces much of the country’s food, contributing to dangerous levels of food price inflation across the country. The conflict has also become entangled with other criminal activities, including cattle rustling and kidnapping for ransom, creating a security nightmare that defies simple solutions.” 

The report noted that the crisis has had a severe impact on Nigeria’s agricultural sector, particularly in the Middle Belt, the nation’s primary food-producing region.

The disruption of farming activities due to insecurity has significantly reduced food supply, leading to soaring food prices nationwide.

According to SBM Intelligence, inflationary pressures have intensified as farmers abandon their lands, livestock theft increases, and supply chains break down due to attacks on transport routes.

The conflict’s economic impact extends beyond food inflation, the report noted.

Rural economies that depend on agriculture have been crippled, exacerbating poverty and unemployment.

The loss of farmlands and livestock has led to a decline in Nigeria’s GDP contribution from the agricultural sector, raising concerns about the long-term stability of the economy.

The farmer-herder clashes have evolved beyond disputes over grazing land, becoming entangled with organized crime.

The proliferation of arms in conflict-prone areas has fueled other criminal activities such as cattle rustling, banditry, and kidnapping for ransom.

The increasing frequency of attacks on farming communities has further deepened tensions and created a volatile security environment, SBM noted.

Despite various interventions, including the National Livestock Transformation Plan (NLTP) and anti-open grazing laws in several states, a sustainable solution remains elusive.

Implementation of these policies has been inconsistent, with limited enforcement due to political resistance, inadequate funding, and logistical constraints.

Furthermore, the flow of illegal arms into conflict zones continues unabated, exacerbating the violence. The report notes that as the conflict spreads southward to states like Edo and Ondo, the likelihood of a nationwide food crisis increases.

Furthermore, the flow of illegal arms into conflict zones continues unabated, exacerbating the violence. The report notes that as the conflict spreads southward to states like Edo and Ondo, the likelihood of a nationwide food crisis increases.

The SBM Intelligence report calls for a comprehensive approach to resolving the crisis. It recommends strengthening security efforts to curb arms proliferation and tackle criminal elements fueling the conflict. SBM also noted the need to implement agricultural reforms that support displaced farmers and encourage climate-resilient farming techniques.

The farmer-herder crisis poses one of Nigeria’s most pressing security and economic challenges. Without decisive action, the displacement figures, food inflation, and criminal activities could spiral further out of control, threatening national stability and economic recovery efforts.