…Says naira may slide to about N1,590/$ by end of 2026
Bismarck Rewane, chief executive officer of Financial Derivatives Company, has projected that the anticipated listing of the Dangote Refinery on the Nigerian Exchange in 2026 could more than double Nigeria’s stock market capitalisation to above N200 trillion, while warning that the naira may weaken to about N1,590 per dollar by the end of 2026.
Rewane made this disclosure at the 2026 Economic Outlook Summit of RCCG Christ Church, held in Lagos at the weekend, where he outlined key expectations for Nigeria’s economy, the foreign exchange market and capital markets over the medium term.
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According to him, the expected public listing of the Dangote Refinery would represent a major milestone for Nigeria’s capital market, given the scale and valuation of the asset.
“We expect the Dangote Refinery to list. If it is listed at today’s valuations, we think it will increase stock market capitalisation from about N105 trillion to over N200 trillion,” Rewane said.
He added that the listing would not only deepen market liquidity but also position the Nigerian Exchange as one of the most significant emerging market bourses globally in terms of size.
On the foreign exchange outlook, Rewane projected that the naira would weaken gradually to around N1,590 per dollar by the end of 2026, even as he expects the US dollar itself to lose strength relative to other global currencies.
“The US dollar is going to weaken because of various forces. There will be a Federal Reserve meeting this month in the US, where interest rates and other policy signals will be clarified. So, we expect a weaker US dollar this year relative to other currencies,” he said.
Rewane noted, however, that despite the medium-term depreciation outlook, the naira has remained relatively stable throughout 2025. He cautioned that pressure may be re-emerging, as the gap between official and parallel market rates has widened to about N71.
“The exchange rate has been largely stable through 2025, but the widening gap between the official rates and the market suggests renewed pressure in the FX market,” he added.
Meanwhile, the naira ended the five-day trading week largely flat across the foreign exchange market as Nigeria’s external reserves crossed the $46 billion mark.
Data published by the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that the naira appreciated marginally to N1,421.62 per dollar on Friday, representing a 45 kobo gain day-on-day from N1,422.07 recorded at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market the previous day.
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Reiterating his outlook, Rewane said: “The naira is expected to weaken to roughly N1,590 per dollar by the end of 2026.”
Also speaking at the summit, John Enoh, minister of State for Industry, Trade and Investment, said the Federal Government has laid the foundation for competitiveness and sustainable economic growth through ongoing reforms.
“The government has laid the foundation for competitiveness and sustainable growth. At the heart of these reforms is the belief that Nigeria will grow sustainably when policy rewards production over consumption and long-term value creation over the short term,” Enoh said.
He noted that the administration inherited deep-rooted structural challenges, including heavy dependence on imports, low investment relative to gross domestic product and inadequate infrastructure to support industrial ambitions.
According to the minister, current reforms are addressing many of these constraints, with a focus on predictability, stability and fairness in the policy environment.
“Our reforms are not just chasing perfection but building predictability, stability and fairness,” he said.
Enoh projected 2026 as a year when the impact of reforms would become more visible to Nigerians and businesses.
“2026 must be a year of impact and outcomes, more jobs, stronger industries, increased trade, deeper investments and renewed hope, in line with the mantra of this administration,” he said.
He cited subsidy removal and the Nigerian Industrial Policy as coordinated reform efforts already laying the groundwork for tangible results, adding that the economy is gradually moving from a phase of shock absorption to consolidation.
On his part, Muda Yusuf, chief executive officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, outlined both the opportunities and challenges within Nigeria’s business environment.
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Yusuf urged Nigerians to consider transitioning from paid employment to self-employment and entrepreneurship, noting that some salary levels no longer reflect current economic realities.