In the wake of the recent announcement by 16 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly declaring their defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC), The Press spoke with Dr. Graham Nseigbe, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Political Science, Rivers State University. He describes the development as “nothing new” and says Rivers State has effectively become an APC state long before now.
Q: Dr. Graham, what is your general reaction to the defection of the 16 lawmakers to the APC?
A: Honestly, there is not much difference from what has already happened before this time. The citizens of the state already know that these lawmakers defected long ago. So what we are seeing now is like defecting from APC to APC. Whether they are still in PDP is not even in contention — they left the PDP long before now.
Q: You seem to suggest that Rivers State has already shifted politically?
A: Yes, I have said it before in different gatherings: Rivers State is already an APC state. The only thing missing was an official pronouncement. Virtually all the structures of government are already in the APC. More than two-thirds of the local government system leans towards APC. Now the Assembly members have simply made official what was already political reality.
Q: So the defection of the 16 members does not change anything?
A: Nothing at all. The only thing new is that they were 27; now they are 16. The real question is: where are the remaining eleven? Are they still playing hide-and-seek APC, or are they waiting to dive deeper into the APC?
Even the ceremony where the APC chairman “received” them was a jamboree. These lawmakers had long been part of APC politically. This was only a formality.
Q: What does this mean for the 2027 elections?
A: It points clearly to what will happen in 2027. Rivers State, officially or unofficially, is APC for now. The entire political structure or more accurately, political machinery is already aligned that way.
Q: What of the governor? Do you think he will run for a second term under the APC?
A: Political aspirations are never easy to predict until the individual involved makes it official. A lot of people claim that part of the peace deal with the minister-led faction is that the governor will not get support for a second term. But the governor has never publicly declared he wants a second term.
Whatever transpired between him and his political godfather remains known only to the two of them. Their private discussions can still determine whether he runs again. So it is too early to speculate about his second-term ambition.
Q: You earlier mentioned that many people misuse the term “political structure.” What do you mean?
A: Formally speaking, political structure refers to the arrangement of government — the executive, legislature, and judiciary — either horizontally or vertically.
What we see in Rivers State is not political structure; these are political machines. Political machines are designed to win elections with mechanical accuracy. The police, security agencies, judiciary, politicians, contractors, and various key actors all operate within these machines.
Some machines are led by the minister; others are led by the governor. They distribute rewards through contracts, appointments, and monetary compensation. This is a clientele system: not political structure.
Q: Finally, what is your summary of the situation?
A: Rivers State is APC. The lawmakers have only formalized what has been true for months. As for the governor, he will either officially join the APC or step aside. That is what is left.