The Senate has approved the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) submitted by President Bola Tinubu, paving the way for the presentation of the 2026 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly.
As part of the approval, the Senate revised the crude oil benchmark price for 2026 downward to $60 per barrel from the $64.85 proposed by the executive, while setting benchmarks of $65 and $70 per barrel for 2027 and 2028, respectively.
The upper chamber explained that the adjustment was informed by heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, as well as ongoing volatility in global oil prices.
The approval followed the consideration and adoption of the report of the Senate Committee on Finance, chaired by Senator Sani Musa (APC, Niger East), during plenary.
Under the approved framework, the Senate endorsed a federal expenditure estimate of N54.46 trillion for 2026, aimed at cushioning the economy against global shocks.
The projected exchange rate was pegged at N1,512 to the dollar for 2026, N1,432.15 for 2027, and N1,383.18 for 2028, in line with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s exchange rate stability policies.
Inflation is projected to decline gradually, with estimates of 16.5 per cent in 2026, 13 per cent in 2027, and 9 per cent in 2028, reflecting expected gains from monetary tightening and ongoing structural reforms.
Despite the conservative oil price assumptions, the Senate retained crude oil production targets of 1.84 million barrels per day for 2026, 1.88 million barrels per day for 2027, and 1.92 million barrels per day for 2028, expressing confidence in continued sector reforms and efforts to stabilise output.
Real GDP growth projections were also maintained at 4.68 per cent for 2026, 5.96 per cent for 2027, and 7.9 per cent for 2028, driven by anticipated benefits from tax reforms and broader economic restructuring.
On fiscal operations, the Senate approved federal government retained revenue of N34.33 trillion, new borrowings of N17.88 trillion, and debt service obligations of N15.52 trillion, resulting in a projected fiscal deficit of N20.13 trillion for 2026.
The framework allocates N1.376 trillion for pensions, gratuities and retirees’ benefits, N20.131 trillion for capital expenditure (excluding transfers), statutory transfers of N3.152 trillion, and a Sinking Fund of N388.54 billion.
Total recurrent (non-debt) expenditure was approved at N15.265 trillion, while special intervention funds for recurrent and capital spending were fixed at N200 billion and N14 billion, respectively.
The Senate also endorsed the effective implementation of newly enacted tax laws and approved the introduction of a National Scanning Policy within the National Single Window of the Nigeria Revenue Service, in collaboration with relevant agencies.
The policy is expected to strengthen revenue assurance, enhance trade facilitation, reduce leakages, improve transparency, and boost national security.
In his closing remarks, Senator Musa commended lawmakers and members of the Finance Committee for their diligence, expressing confidence that the approved framework would promote fiscal stability and sustainable economic growth.