Smaller sub-Saharan African economies, including South Sudan, Guinea, and Rwanda, are expected to record the region’s highest growth in 2026, outpacing larger peers as oil exports resume, new mining projects come on stream, and services activity remains resilient.
An analysis of the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report shows that South Sudan is projected to rebound sharply after years of economic distress, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimated at 48.8 percent in 2026, from a deep contraction of 23.8 percent in 2025.
Guinea is forecast to expand to 9.3 percent, up from 7.5 percent, while Rwanda’s growth is expected to strengthen to 7.2 percent from 7.0 percent. By contrast, some of the region’s weakest performers are projected to post only marginal improvements.
Equatorial Guinea is expected to grow to 0.4 percent after a contraction of 1.6 percent, while Lesotho’s growth is forecast to slow to 0.7 percent from 1.3 percent. South Africa, the continent’s biggest economy, is projected to see a modest improvement to 1.4 percent from 1.3 percent.
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“In South Sudan, a substantial recovery in 2026 following five years of contraction is expected to be supported by a normalisation of activity and the resumption of oil exports,” the World Bank said.
The upbeat outlook for South Sudan is also echoed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which recently ranked the country among the world’s fastest-growing economies. The Fund forecasts GDP growth of about 27.2 percent in 2025, driven largely by the restoration of oil exports.
The East African economy is heavily dependent on crude oil, which typically accounts for more than 90 percent of government revenue and a large share of GDP. Output was severely disrupted after damage to the export pipeline running through Sudan, compounded by regional conflict, triggering a sharp contraction in 2024.
Repairs to the pipeline and renewed efforts to ramp up production are now underpinning the expected rebound.
In Guinea, growth is being lifted by the anticipated start of exports from a new large-scale iron ore project, which the World Bank said would provide a significant boost to output.
Rwanda, meanwhile, continues to benefit from strong investment and a broad-based expansion in services, although growth has been partly tempered by slower agricultural output linked to climate effects.
Beyond the smaller economies, Africa’s most populous nation is also expected to post its strongest growth in more than a decade this year and into 2027. The multilateral lender projects that Nigeria’s expansion will be supported by sustained momentum in services and a rebound in agricultural output after productivity slowed to a 40-year low.
The country’s growth prospects are being reinforced by ongoing reforms, including the rollout of a restructured tax system and the continuation of prudent monetary policy. Nearly three years ago, the country implemented politically difficult but economically significant reforms, notably the removal of costly fuel subsidies and the liberalisation of the naira, allowing the currency to trade more freely.
While the adjustments initially weighed on living standards, they have helped stabilise macroeconomic conditions and reshape Nigeria’s economic ranking, pushing it to Africa’s fourth-largest economy in 2023 from the top spot.
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South Africa is also expected to see an improvement in growth this year, marking its strongest performance since 2022, supported by private consumption and investment.
Overall, the World Bank expects sub-Saharan Africa to grow by 4.3 percent, up from 4.0 percent, reflecting stronger momentum in its largest economies.
“The upward revision for the region is largely due to upgrades in its largest economies—particularly Nigeria, where continued steady expansion in services and a rebound in agricultural output are set to support activity, and South Africa, where activity is expected to be underpinned by private consumption and investment,” the report said.
It added that in both countries, ongoing reforms to the business environment and the public sector are expected to continue supporting medium-term growth prospects across the region.