There are indications that the supply of petrol from the Dangote Refinery may drop as the 650,000 barrels per day capacity facility has been buying less crude recently, as per Bloomberg.
The facility is expected to purchase fewer than 300,000 barrels a day of crude this month, according to tanker-tracking data and cargo allocation lists compiled by Bloomberg.
The amount, which includes local supplies and imports, is down more than 50 per cent from a peak in July, and is less than half the plant’s capacity.
About 150,0000 barrels a day of feedstock for this month will come from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) under the Crude for Naira deal, and the state oil company is set to ship a similar amount to Dangote in November.
This comes amid operational setbacks, which analysts say could persist into next year and lead to an increase in petrol prices.
Last year, Dangote Refinery started producing properly and since then has disrupted operations in Europe and Africa, but in the last few months, it has seen challenges including outages as well as a strike by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN).
This year, Dangote’s petrol producing unit recorded several stoppages and this impacted its ability to meet its target and there are indications that it could shut down again early next year to complete major work, according to intelligence firm IIR Energy.
Bloomberg reported that the shutdown in Nigeria as well as other refineries in Europe and the Middle East have led to increase in petrol prices in the past months.
Several analysts told the publication that the refinery may not operate at a high rate going into 2026.
“We think it is likely that Dangote will continue to face issues next year, albeit to a lesser extent than this year,” said Mr Qilin Tam, head of refining at FGE NexantECA. Unscheduled outages “could add a bullish sentiment to the gasoline market moving forward,” especially ahead of next summer’s driving season.
“European gasoline has been extremely strong as a result of Dangote’s issues,” Sparta Commodities analyst Mr Neil Crosby said. “At the moment Dangote’s track record is poor, and if that keeps going it will be supportive for European gasoline, and to a degree distillate, going forward.”
Any further operational issues at the refinery would curb crude runs and lead to a lower-value mix of oil products in place of gasoline, said Mr Alan Gelder, WoodMac’s vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets.