Taylor Swift's Box Office Tradition Makes For Another #1 Hit on the Horizon

Taylor Swift is poised to have another No. 1 hit at the box office thanks to a theatrical tradition. The pop superstar’s 2023 concert movie Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, which didn’t even run on Mondays through Wednesdays (except holidays), grossed $261.6 million, becoming the highest-grossing concert film of all time and the 30th highest-grossing movie of the year worldwide.

She is now returning to theaters two years later with the limited theatrical presentation Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. The event runs from October 3 through 5 and includes a new music video alongside behind-the-scenes material promoting the October 3 release of her twelfth studio album, The Life of a Showgirl.

Per Variety, Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl is projected to earn a 3-day gross of $35 to $40 million at the domestic box office. This should see it taking No. 1 for the weekend, following in the footsteps of The Eras Tour, which topped the domestic box office during both its debut weekend and its sophomore weekend.

This gross is significantly higher than the projected 3-day totals for the weekend’s other notable releases, both of which are major awards season players led by A-list stars. Those would be the debut of Dwayne Johnson’s Mark Kerr biopic The Smashing Machine (~$10.2 million) and the sophomore weekend of Leonardo DiCaprio’s action thriller One Battle After Another (~$10 million).

What This Means For Taylor Swift

These strong box office projections for The Official Release Party of a Showgirl show Taylor Swift repeating a box office tradition that has proven to pay dividends. This is the fact that the new presentation is debuting in October, just like The Eras Tour, which premiered on October 13, 2023.

While the month of October does not necessarily have deep significance to Taylor Swift (as opposed to the number 13, which was the day she was born and which she uses frequently in her work), having two October theatrical successes in the span of three years is still no small accomplishment.

Multiple Taylor Swift albums have been released in October as well, including her self-titled debut, Speak Now, Red, and 1989.

It is likely that this October release was a coincidence, as it merely lines up with the release date of the upcoming Taylor Swift album. However, it seems that the artist has struck a rich vein of box office potential.

October can be a period of box office doldrums ahead of the splashier holiday movie season, so it is possible that Swift’s releases, by virtue of the strength of her name as a global pop star, stand out among a collection of mid-level titles in a way they might not during the summer movie season, when new blockbusters are debuting every weekend.

Our Take On The Life Of A Showgirl Box Office Projections

Ultimately, the new Taylor Swift presentation can’t quite compare to the Eras Tour box office (which had a $93.2 million domestic debut), partially because of its limited run. However, the fact that such a relatively minor release for the star is still poised to take No. 1 is an impressive feat.

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