The 2023 Dangote Sugar-NASCON merger collapse: A postmortem analysis

Under the proposed terms, NASCON shareholders would give up 12 NASCON shares in exchange for 11 shares of Dangote Sugar.

The plan looked good until April 2024, when it suddenly fell apart.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) raised concerns. Dangote Rice was not operational, so merging it with functioning companies did not quite add up. The deal was officially suspended.

Since then, with the release of the 2024 full-year and Q1 2025 results, investors are left wondering: Did shareholders miss out on a big opportunity, or did they dodge a loss?

Nascon Allied Industries Plc 

By the end of 2024, NASCON’s share price had fallen by 41.6%, closing the year at N31.35.

But fast-forward to May 2025, and the stock has staged a major comeback up a whopping 72% year-to-date, now trading at N54.

The company did not just bounce back in the market, it backed it up with real performance:

Dangote Sugar faced some tough challenges in 2024. By the end of the year, its share price had declined by 42.98%, closing at N32.50.

But in 2025, the company showed signs of recovery, with a 16.9% year-to-date gain, bringing the stock to around N38.

Financially:

While Dangote Sugar still faces challenges like high borrowing costs and thinner margins, its Q1 2025 performance suggests it is making progress toward stabilization.

Had the merger gone through, NASCON shareholders would have exchanged a recovering, dividend-paying stock for shares in a company that is still in turnaround mode.

The 12-for-11 share swap could have diluted NASCON’s strong momentum and tied it to a business still navigating headwinds.

Instead:

Instead:

Meanwhile, Dangote Sugar is gradually regaining its footing, showing improvement but still working to return to its past strength.

Sometimes, the best deals are the ones that wait for the right timing.

For now, NASCON shareholders benefited from staying the course, while Dangote Sugar continues its path to recovery.