Tron: Ares Box Office Disappoints, Earning Tens of Millions Less Than Expected

Tron: Ares is on track for a disappointing global debut, even compared to its original modest expectations. The new movie, which was directed by Joachim Rønning and stars Jared Leto, is the third installment in the cult sci-fi franchise. Tron: Ares reviews have been mixed, earning it a middling 57% score on Rotten Tomatoes.

Per Variety, as of Sunday morning, Tron: Ares is projected to conclude its debut weekend with a 3-day global box office total of $60 million, comprising $33.5 million from domestic theaters and an additional $27 million from international markets. This total sees the movie falling significantly below its original projections.

As late as Wednesday, Tron: Ares was expected to earn a global debut of between $85 and $95 million. It is now set to land a full $25 million beneath the lower bound of that range.

Additionally, Ares was originally expected to break the franchise’s domestic opening weekend record by surpassing the $44 million earned by Tron: Legacy in 2010. However, it has barely managed to surpass that total worldwide.

This may not be a death knell for Ares. The Tron movies have always been cult classics rather than theatrical smash hits, and there is some potential for that to be the case with this new installment as well. Its audience reception has been relatively strong so far, earning it a B+ CinemaScore and an 87% Rotten Tomatoes Popcornmeter score.

Regardless, it seems highly unlikely that Tron: Ares will break even in theaters. Its reported budget is somewhere between $180 and $200 million, making it the most expensive installment yet (though Tron: Legacy‘s budget is roughly $250 million when adjusted for inflation).

Because blockbuster movies often need to earn back two and a half times their budgets, Ares‘ estimated break-even point could therefore potentially be between $450 and $500 million. Considering the fact that Tron: Legacy, which had a substantially superior debut, could barely scrape more than $400 million, Ares hitting that benchmark in theaters seems well outside the realm of possibility.

However, if audience reception continues to be high, Tron: Ares could follow in the footsteps of its predecessors and become a slow-burn success once it leaves theaters. After its time at the box office is over, it still has plenty of opportunities to grow thanks to VOD, streaming, and physical media.

If the possible Tron 4 ever comes to fruition, though, it seems entirely likely that Tron: Ares‘ results will see it being greenlit any time soon. The next installment, if it ever comes, could continue the franchise’s trend of having hiatuses of more than a decade between entries.

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