The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has just released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for December 2025.
Following the completion of the recent rebasing exercise, the report centred on a new CPI base year of 2024 and a weight reference period of 2023.
Headline Inflation Rate:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 131.2 in December 2025, and reflects a 0.7-point increase from the preceding month. Hence, the headline inflation rate for December 2025 stood at 15.15 percent, using a 12-month index reference period where 2024 is equated to 100.
Explainer…
Adeyemi Adeniran, Statistican General of the Federation/ Chief Executive Officer, National Bureau of Statistics noted that the December 2025 year-on-year headline inflation rate, including all other sub-indexes were obtained through the maximisation of the index reference period, that is, using a 12-month index reference period where the average CPI for the 12 months of 2024 is equated to 100.
“This is not the same with the single-month index reference period, in which December 2024 was set to 100”, he added.
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Contributions to Headline Inflation:
At the divisional level, the three major contributors to the headline inflation were Food and non-alcoholic Beverages: 6.06 percent, Restaurants & Accommodation Services: 1.96 percent, and Transport: 1.62 percent; while the least contributors were Recreation, Sport, and Culture: 0.05 percent, Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco, and Narcotics: 0.05 percent, and Insurance and Financial Services: 0.07.
On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in December 2025 was 0.54 percent, which was 0.68 percent less than the rate recorded in November 2025 (1.22 percent).
Food Inflation Rate:
The food inflation rate in December 2025 was 10.84 percent on a year-on-year basis. On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in December 2025 was -0.36 percent, down by 1.49 percent compared to November 2025 (1.13 percent). The decrease can be attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of Tomatoes, Garri, Eggs, Potatoes, Carrots, Millet, Vegetables, Plantain, Beans, Wheat Grain, Grounded Pepper, Onions (Fresh), among others.
Core Inflation Rate:
Core Inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 18.63 percent in December 2025 on a year-on-year basis. On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 0.58 percent in December 2025, down by 0.7 percent compared to November 2025 (1.28 percent).
The newly introduced indices:
The inflation rate of the sub-indices for December 2025 shows that only Energy increased significantly (2.74 percent), while others indices decreased with their performances as follow; Farm Produce (-0.41 percent), Services (0.15 percent) and Goods (0.64 percent).
Urban and Rural Inflation Rates:
On a year-on-year basis, the urban inflation rate in December 2025 was 14.85 percent. On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was 0.99 percent in December 2025, up by 0.04 percent compared to November 2025 (0.95 percent).
The rural inflation rate in December 2025 was 14.56 percent on a year-on-year basis. On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in December 2025 was -0.55 percent, fell by 2.43 percent compared to November 2025 (1.88 percent).
State-Level Analyses:
In analysing price movements under this section, it should be noted that CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns that differ across States and locations. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular Food or Non-Food item may differ from State to State making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.
All Items Inflation:
The all-item index for December 2025, the All-Items inflation rate on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Abia (19.03 percent), Ogun (18.80 percent), and Katsina (18.66 percent), while Sokoto (8.61 percent), Plateau (9.05 percent) and Kaduna (10.38 percent) recorded the lowest rise in Headline inflation on a Year-on-Year basis. On a Month-on-Month basis, however, December 2025 recorded the highest increases in Cross River (3.11 percent), Abia (2.63 percent) and Delta (2.53 percent), while Ondo (-3.74 percent), Gombe (-3.02 percent), and Jigawa (-1.96 percent) recorded a decline in the Month-on-Month inflation.
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Food Inflation
State-level analyses of the food index in December 2025, Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Yobe (15.25 percent), Ogun (14.12 percent), and Abuja (13.24 percent), while Akwa Ibom (4.34 percent), Sokoto (4.62 percent), and Plateau (6.19 percent) recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis. On a Month-on-Month basis, however, December 2025 Food inflation was highest in Imo (3.19 percent), Nasarawa (3.16 percent) and Yobe (1.18 percent), while Plateau (-2.76 percent), Rivers (-2.50 percent), and Zamfara (-1.93 percent) recorded a decline in Food inflation on a Month-on-Month basis.