The kick-off to the Africa Cup of Nations Tournament in Morocco is just under two months away, and anticipation is building ahead of the continental special, Soccernet.ng reports.
24 countries will battle for Africa’s most prestigious football crown, but which one will emerge victorious is currently unknown.
Nigeria and Ivory Coast battled it out last year in the final, but the hosts emerged victorious, as Sebastien Haller made history by scoring the winner after overcoming a battle with testicular cancer.
That is also one of the stories the competition tells, as the connection goes beyond just football. A friendly throwback would be Zambia’s former captain Christopher Katongo, leading the Copper Bullets to the AFCON 2012 triumph while serving as a soldier for his country.
From expert opinions to advanced data models, Soccernet.ng looks at which nation the odds favour ahead of the big showdown in December.
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The Expert’s Consensus: A Host Favourite and Familiar Challengers
For many analysts, Morocco stands out as the team to beat. The Atlas Lions are ranked 12th in the world and the highest-placed side in Africa.
Walid Regragui’s men have combined tactical maturity with the creative spark of players like PSG’s Achraf Hakimi, their brilliant goalkeeper Yassine Bounou, Lille’s young attacking forward Hamza Igamane, and Hakim Ziyech.
With home support behind them, Morocco are expected to feed off the energy of their fans and use it as an extra weapon to advance beyond the round of 16 stage, where they were eliminated by Ivory Coast just under two years ago.
Senegal, meanwhile, continue to impress with consistency and balance. Pape Thiaw’s men possess arguably the most well-rounded squad on the continent, from Edouard Mendy’s composure in goal to Sadio Mané’s leadership.
While Nicolas Jackson isn’t the most prolific striker, their midfield trio of Pape Mate Sarr, Pape Gueye and Idrissa Gana Gueye is rock solid, and has legs for days, considering the physical nature of African football.
Senegal’s depth and stability make them one of the safest bets to reach at least the semi-finals.
Egypt, seven-time AFCON winners, have quietly built an unbeaten streak of over a year, with their most recent loss coming in March 2024.
Under Hossam Hassan, the Pharaohs have rediscovered their defensive discipline and attacking edge, with Mohamed Salah leading a generation that mixes experience and youth. They’ve scored nine goals in their last six games, keeping a clean sheet in every one of those fixtures.
Nigeria, runners-up in 2023, remain a fascinating wildcard. The Super Eagles have attacking depth that few can match.
Victor Osimhen, Ademola Lookman, Akor Adams and Tolu Arokodare, among others, but questions persist about tactical cohesion and on-field chemistry after a tough World Cup qualifying campaign that many expected to be a walk in the park.
Still, Eric Chelle’s men are genuine contenders for the title. A solid back five saw them keep four clean sheets in the run to the final against Ivory Coast, and with a much-improved squad, they’re a team to watch out for.
Reigning champions Ivory Coast, also can’t be overlooked. Fresh off securing qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, unbeaten, Emerse Faé’s men are confident and battle-tested.
Coaches weigh in
Some of the men in the higher cadre of football hierarchy have also made their voices heard. Former Tunisia U-23 coach, Chiheb Ellili, named six nations who could go all the way.
As revealed by Foot Africa, the 61-year-old tactician stated that Tunisia are not among the serious contenders for the title, pointing to the average level of its Europe-based internationals and the decline of local players.
Instead, he named six nations capable of challenging for the trophy: Morocco, Algeria, and Egypt, as well as Senegal, Nigeria, and Cameroon, while placing Moroccan star Achraf Hakimi among the top favourites to win the African Ballon d’Or, praising his high-level performances with Paris Saint-Germain.
Tanzania head coach, Hemed Suleiman, in an interview with CAF Online, also revealed his favourites to win the AFCON 2025 tournament.
“Many nations could go all the way to win it. Nigeria and Senegal have premier African-calibre squads, many playing in top European leagues.
“Morocco, as a host, has organisation, belief, and quality. Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire and Algeria all carry depth and experience.
“That said, AFCON is unpredictable — the favourites are strong, but surprises happen,” the former Zanzibar coach stated.
AI Predictions: The numbers behind the names
An AI-powered simulation, drawing from FIFA rankings, team market values, goal differences, and recent form, paints a clear picture of the competition’s pecking order.
After 10,000 simulations, here’s how the algorithm predicts the top five likely winners of AFCON 2025:
| Team | Predicted Chance of Winning | Key Factors |
| Morocco | 26% | Home advantage, tactical cohesion, world-class defence |
| Senegal | 20% | Squad balance, consistency, and tournament experience |
| Egypt | 17% | Unbeaten run, Salah’s influence, compact structure |
| Nigeria | 15% | Attacking firepower, youthful energy, unpredictability |
| Ivory Coast | 12% | Experience, confidence as reigning champions |
The Dark Horses: Mali and South Africa lurking
Away from the traditional giants and household names, Mali and South Africa have emerged as intriguing outsiders.
Mali’s steady climb in the FIFA rankings, alongside a strong crop of Europe-based players like Yves Bissouma and Kamory Doumbia, makes them a potential spoiler.
Les Aigles’ blend of power and pace has troubled teams recently, and a favourable group featuring Morocco, Zambia, and Comoros could pave an easy path to the knockout rounds.
South Africa, on the other hand, are riding on a wave of renewed confidence. After clinching bronze in the previous AFCON and securing World Cup qualification for the first time in 16 years, Bafana Bafana have built an organised, pressing-oriented side.
Few expect them to go all the way, but not many teams will relish facing them either.
Key Factors That Could Decide the Trophy
Home Advantage: History favours hosts. Egypt (2006) and Cote d’Ivoire (2023) both lifted the trophy on home soil.
Squad Depth: Teams like Senegal and Nigeria have the luxury of multiple options per position, which is crucial in a gruelling tournament.
Coaching and tactical stability: Sides with continuity in the dugout, like South Africa, Morocco, Senegal, and Egypt, have an edge over nations still tinkering with their systems.
Form and Momentum: AFCON has often rewarded teams that peak at the right time. Ivory Coast’s 2023 triumph is proof that early struggles don’t always define the ending.
The Intangibles: From injuries to penalty shootouts, AFCON’s history is littered with twists that no AI can fully predict. While football fans like to analyse and juxtapose, sometimes, time and chance just happen.
Who will win the AFCON 2025 Tournament?
Most fingers have pointed to Morocco to enter AFCON 2025 as the front-runners, not only because of their squad strength but also because of the power of home soil.
Yet, given the history of the competition, the continent’s crown rarely rests easily on any favourite’s head.
Senegal, Egypt, Nigeria, and Ivory Coast all have legitimate claims, and the difference between glory and heartbreak may come down to a single moment.
From Agadir to Rabat to Marrakech to Casablanca, the rhythm of African football will soon sound again, and while AI leans toward Morocco, AFCON has never been a tournament that yields to algorithms.