World Bank Forecasts 3.6% GDP Growth for Nigeria in 2025

The Bretton Wood institution in its report titled Global Economic Prospects, January 2025 published on Thursday, said recent reforms, including subsidy removal, Naira liberalisation and the introduction of tax reform bills would help to boost business confidence.

“In Nigeria, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth increased to an estimated 3.3 per cent in 2024, mainly driven by services sector activity, particularly in financial and telecommunication services.

“Macroeconomic and fiscal reforms helped improve business confidence. In response to rising inflation and a weak naira, the central bank tightened monetary policy.

“Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit narrowed due to a surge in revenues driven by the elimination of the implicit foreign exchange subsidy, following the unification of the exchange rate and improved revenue administration,” a part of the report stated.

The World Bank noted that the wider Sub-Saharan Africa, to which Nigeria belongs would see a 4.1 per cent growth in the current year, before seeing a 4.3 per cent rise in 2026.

“Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, SSA is expected to firm to 4.1 per cent in 2025 and 4.3 per cent in 2026, as financial conditions ease alongside further declines in inflation. Following weaker-than-expected regional growth last year, growth projections for 2025 have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points, and for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points, with improvements seen across various subgroups. At the country level, projected growth has been upgraded for nearly half of SSA economies in both 2025 and 2026.

“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to an average of 3.6 per cent a year in 2025-26. Following monetary policy tightening in 2024, inflation is projected to gradually decline, boosting consumption and supporting growth in the services sector, which continues to be the main driver of growth,” it added.

The global lender disclosed that oil production is expected to increase over the forecast period but remain below the 1.5 million barrels per day quota of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).