The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s inflation rate will ease to 15.8 per cent by 2027, marking a significant moderation from current levels.
The global lender made the forecast in its latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU) Report titled Bring the Reform Gains Home released on Wednesday, noting that reforms carried out by the Bola Tinubu-led presidency and tight monetary policies could help achieve this.
Nigeria’s inflation rate has shown a steady downward trend over the past five months, reflecting gradual easing in price pressures after it was rebased by the National Bureau of Statistics earlier this year.
In May 2025, inflation stood at about 22.97 per cent, before declining to 22.22 per cent in June. The disinflationary trend continued in July, when the rate eased further to 21.88 per cent, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. By August 2025, inflation had dropped to 20.12 per cent, representing the fifth straight month of moderation.
This trend over the last five months suggests early signs of price stability amid tighter monetary policy and improved supply conditions.
According to the World Bank report, the expected easing in inflation will be driven by the impact of tight monetary policy and easing supply pressures, suggesting that recent fiscal and structural reforms are beginning to stabilize price conditions in Africa’s largest crude producer.
The World Bank described Nigeria’s overall outlook as “cautiously optimistic,” highlighting steady growth, fiscal stability, and an improved external position as supportive factors.
It, however, cautioned that inflation and growth remain vulnerable to oil price shocks, reform fatigue, election uncertainties, and climate-related disruptions.
The report noted that Nigeria’s GDP growth is projected to rise modestly to 4.4 per cent in 2027, supported by strong services, a rebound in agriculture, and improved industrial activity. The fiscal deficit is expected to average 2.7 per cent of GDP over 2026–2027, underpinned by higher revenues from tax reforms and lower interest payments.
Although it acknowledging these gains, the lender emphasised that sustained reform momentum and policy discipline will be critical in maintaining disinflation and achieving macroeconomic stability in the years ahead.
It also urged the Nigerian government to tackle soaring food prices and improve living standards for millions of struggling Nigerians.