Across the 36 states and the FCT, Yobe, known as the pride of the Sahel, reported the highest food inflation rate of 15.2 per cent year-on-year, followed by Ogun State, the gateway state, with 14.1 per cent and Abuja with 13.2 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
While Akwa Ibom (4.34 per cent), Sokoto (4.62 per cent), and Plateau (6.19 per cent) recorded the slowest rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis.
The Consumer Price Index report, which tracks Africa’s most populous inflation data, reveals that on a month-on-month basis, December 2025 food inflation was highest in Imo (3.19 per cent), Nasarawa (3.16 per cent), and Yobe (1.18 per cent), while Plateau (-2.76 percent), Rivers (-2.50 percent), and Zamfara (-1.93 percent) recorded a decline in food inflation on a month-on-month basis.
Food inflation continues to strain household incomes across Nigeria, despite a technical drop in the year-on-year national average, which stood at 10.84 per cent in December 2025.
However, on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in December 2025 was -0.36 per cent, down by 1.49 per cent compared to November 2025 (1.13 per cent).
According to NBS, the decline can be attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, vegetables, plantain, beans, wheat grain, ground pepper, and onions (fresh), among others.
The NBS report tracks 242 essential staples that most households consume regularly, thereby bringing food and non-alcoholic beverages (6.06 per cent), restaurant & accommodation services (1.96 per cent), and transport (1.62 per cent) as the three largest contributors to Nigeria’s high inflation rate in December.
While the least contributors were recreation, sport, and culture: 0.05 per cent; alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and narcotics: 0.05 per cent; and insurance and financial services: 0.07.
Read more: https://businessday.ng/business-economy/article/what-to-know-about-nigerias-15-15-inflation-rate-for-december/
According to NBS, the headline inflation rate stood at 15.15 per cent, using a 12-month index reference period where 2024 is equated to 100.
It further noted that the December 2025 headline rate was 19.65 percentage points lower than the level recorded a year earlier, highlighting the scale of the slowdown, although this was based on a revised base year.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation moderated to 0.54% in December from 1.22% in November, indicating easing short-term price pressures.
According to CardinalStone analysts in a notice, it is constructive on Nigeria’s inflation trajectory, noting that the pace of price increases is expected to continue moderating as key pressure points ease.
Headline inflation is projected to average 14.02 per cent in 2026 and close the year at 12.22 per cent, implying a return to Nigeria’s long-run inflation average of about 14 per cent and a dip below that level between May and December.
CardinalStone expects the naira to appreciate to between N1,350/$ and N1,450/$ in 2026, supported by improved foreign exchange liquidity, strong external reserves, a robust current account surplus, and sustained transparency in the FX market.
“With inflation projected below the Central Bank of Nigeria’s 16 percent target, there will be room for monetary policy rate cuts of 300 to 400 basis points in 2026, likely after the March inflation data. It also expects a gradual easing of other tightening measures, including the cash reserve ratio, from the second half of the year to support credit growth,” the research firm said.